The demand for the USD has risen in recent days due to expectations that the improved economic data would force the FED to hike interest rates in September. So, the market was all set up for some hawkish comments.
But, Yellen's testimony offered no such thing. Don't misunderstand, there were a lot of positive comments in the statement; the FED is aware of the pickup in global and domestic economies.
According to what we knew before the testimony statement, rate hike odds stood at 60% for December. So, if the odds were for the odds to jump, the statement would contain new hawkish comments, which it didn't.
Instead, she said the inflation rates are surrounded by uncertainty. So, no hawkish signals from this report and December rate hike odds fell to 53%. Unless we see some really great US data, September is off the table.
We ended up with a losing and a winning signal as the Buck lost about 50-60 pips across the board. But, at least USD/JPY is headed towards our buying level and has already covered half the way.
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